Marilyn vos Savant and Conditional Probability

The following question appeared in the “Ask Marilyn” column in the August 16, 2015 issue of Parade magazine.  The writer seems stuck between two probabilities. (Click here for a cleaned-up online version if you don't like the newspaper look.) I just pitched this question to my statistics class (we start the year with a probability unit).  I…

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Marilyn vos Savant and Conditional Probability